How Enrollment Analytics Helped Gilroy Make the Right School Closure Decision

Challenges

• Declining student enrollment 
• Unsure which school to close because disparate data was difficult to analyze 
• Lack of experience in closing a school 

Products & Solutions

• PowerSchool Predictive Enrollment Analytics 
• PowerSchool Enrollment 

Results

• School closure decision based on historical, current, and predictive enrollment data 
• Better allocation of resources for staffing, transportation, and student support 
• Community alignment with families well-informed with accurate data throughout process

No district takes joy in closing a school. But like an increasing number of districts facing declining enrollment, Gilroy Unified School District was forced to close one of its elementary schools. With no prior school closure experience, the district turned to experts for help.  

Located in southern Santa Clara County, California, Gilroy Unified School District currently serves nearly 11,000 students in 14 schools. In 2018, enrollment had declined by 580 students over the previous five years.

District officials knew their enrollment-based funding couldn’t support its facilities. But they didn’t know how to determine which school to close.

Gilroy Unified School District business leaders had access to enrollment data and other factors, but the information was siloed in multiple sources—spreadsheets, lists of student addresses from a student information system, and even projections written on paper. It was a complicated, time-consuming process to see which students were assigned to specific boundaries that would give them insights and mapping estimates.

“Everything took people and time,” says Alvaro Meza, the district’s chief business officer (CBO). “We didn’t have the expertise to do that at a very rapid pace—to give our board and superintendent data that they needed to make almost real-time decisions.”

District leaders determined they would need two critical components to help in this process: a powerful enrollment analytics product to look at multiple factors, and an expert partner to guide them through each step of the process.

“We specifically looked for an enrollment analytics tool with a host of options that was dynamic and responsive enough for our needs,” Meza says. “We also wanted a smart, thoughtful, strategic partner. This was for the long haul, and we wanted a good partner we could rely on.”

The mid-sized district also wanted the new tool to connect with its SIS with a user-friendly, intuitive interface.

Gilroy Unified School District chose PowerSchool Predictive Enrollment Analytics (then called DecisionInsites). This enrollment analytics tool would provide actionable intelligence about the district’s student enrollment through student data, descriptive and predictive statistics, and analytic tools. This data helps to predict student enrollment better and properly allocate resources within the district, including determining which school would be most prudent to close to ensure students at existing schools, and the relocated students, would be fully supported.

“Most CBOs have additional support staff using the product. But for us, it was just me. Right away, Predictive Enrollment Analytics was intuitive, so I didn’t have to train anybody because it was easy to use. This was an excellent option for us both for the short term and long term.”

A Two-Year Process Simplified

Because closing a school is such a far-reaching and emotional decision, Gilroy Unified wanted accurate, current data throughout the process. Starting in 2018, Meza worked with a surplus committee to study the enrollment analytics and give the school board options to consider. In all, the process would take two full years to implement.

The surplus committee used Predictive Enrollment Analytics to look at multiple types of enrollment, demographic, and geographic data, including:

• Past, present, and projected future student enrollment, including district-wide and grade-level projections
• Enrollment forecasts combined with housing development data, boundary consultations, school capacity, and student yield studies
• Transportation impacts of moving school boundaries in multiple scenarios
• Advanced analytics, simulated scenarios, and real-time impact estimations

Throughout the process, PowerSchool experts worked closely with Meza, along with the surplus committee, HR staff, stakeholders, and even City officials.

“There’s nothing more difficult for a governing board than closing a campus. That’s why it’s so important to have a strategic partner like PowerSchool who has been through this before successfully. They helped walk us through a complicated process. They also have the tools to make effective, efficient decisions happen,” says Meza.

Meza says they worked through scenarios thoughtfully. With PowerSchool’s advice, the district designed practical boundaries and helped identify the least disruptive way of closing a school.

“I was able to explain a concept to the PowerSchool team about what we were trying to achieve to consolidate campuses with the least disruption on the resident students. We created new boundaries and models with all of that data, were able to study it, and make sense of it in almost a real-time situation,” Meza says.

Based on data, committee meetings, and stakeholder discussions, Gilroy Unified decided to close Antonio Del Buono Elementary School. At the time, that school had only 445 students with a capacity of 875.

The decision proved to be the right one. Two years after closing Antonio Del Buono Elementary, Meza says, “The decision to close that campus was spot on. The two remaining elementary campuses have absorbed Antonio Del Buono’s students successfully and even have the capacity to take in more students.”

Combination of a Powerful Tool and Expert Partner

Predictive Enrollment Analytics saved Gilroy Unified time by reducing tasks and simplifying the process of pulling critical data together from multiple sources.

“I just can’t imagine how long or chaotic the process would have been without PowerSchool’s smart, strategic, and efficient tools,” says Meza. “There was no way that we could have rapidly studied short and long-term impact with a 10-year forecast on all possible scenarios in real time. But with PowerSchool, we could.”

Meza says many tasks that would have drawn out over time could now be done almost instantly with PowerSchool. “Without PowerSchool, the process could have taken weeks just to study a scenario. And then, as soon as a board member would have questions on a scenario, without PowerSchool’s drag and drop capabilities to create new potential boundaries, we’d have to recalculate and replot and come back to them a week later. It’s been essential to have smart tools to make almost real-time decisions.”

PowerSchool’s experienced enrollment analytics team worked with Gilroy Unified School District to see accurate enrollment predictions and analyze the data to make the best decision for students, staff, and the community.

“Anybody can give you tools, but to have somebody dedicated to you who truly cares and is invested in the decision is critical,” Meza says. “PowerSchool worked with us to tailor the solution for our specific needs. After meetings, PowerSchool would fine-tune adjustments to make sure that the maps and the student counts were all accurate and then presented the data to the governing board and our community. It just adds another dimension of credibility to the process when you have an external party come who truly understands this entire, difficult process.”

Data Helps Gain Community and Parent Support

Transparency and accuracy are critical when communicating with parents and the community during a school closure. The process often struggles because people feel they don’t have a voice in it, especially when they’re surprised when a closure is announced.

“Having a sound outreach plan in place was really important. It was key for us to inform the public of the actual impact by showing the data and ensuring them that we were prepared,” Meza says. “We could show our 10-year projection with school capacities and how we’d be able to accommodate students into the future.”

Meza says having excellent data tools to visualize the new boundaries and maps helped people understand it more rapidly. Using Predictive Enrollment Analytics, the district could show the community crucial data like current and historical enrollment, birth rates, and student generation rates.

How Gilroy Is Using Enrollment Analytics Now

Following its school closure, Gilroy Unified School District continues to use Predictive Enrollment Analytics to make informed decisions. Studying current and future data on enrollment helps them better allocate resources to the right schools to best support students. This includes maintaining appropriate staffing levels and transportation routes.

The district also studies its 10-year projections to look ahead at potential future school closures. PowerSchool helps the district look at upcoming enrollment forecasts and housing developments, and re-evaluate enrollment projections annually for short- and long-term projections. Factors the tool helps with include studying Generation Z projections as those parents typically wait longer to have children and also have fewer children than previous generations.

Predictive Enrollment Analytics also helps study a new set of students—transitional kindergarteners (TK)—to see where they’re living and in which elementary schools would make the most sense to start a new program.

“We use PowerSchool’s tool to figure out the most thoughtful implementation of TK. We can’t start a new program at every campus because of expense, so we have to determine where they live and then study how to best minimize transportation and other impacts.”

“You Need a Long-Range Telescope”

Closing a school isn’t an easy decision or process, but there’s no doubt Gilroy Unified’s decision was made easier and confidently because of its partnership with PowerSchool. The district credits PowerSchool’s best-in-class Predictive Enrollment Analytics tool, accurate data, and an expert team of dedicated professionals as essential in choosing to close Antonio Del Buono Elementary School.

“PowerSchool helped us look at multiple analytics for a long-term projection. You need a tool that is like a long-range telescope to look ahead. And the people behind that tool are just as important. It was a strategic partnership with PowerSchool, and it’s worked great for us.”